Two titles on the line at UFC 269 that will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada at T-Mobile Arena. Amanda Nunes defends her Bantamweight title against #3 Julianna Pena . Pena (11-4) is 3-2 in her last five fights spanning over four years. Nunes, on the other hand, has been consistently defending two belts and clearing out two divisions. So much so that Pena got this fight because she asked for it. Holly Holm and Irene Aldana are both ranked ahead of Pena. Dustin Poirier vs Charles Oliveira for the Lightweight title is always interesting because it’s the most active and it’s where names like Gaethje, Hooker, Chandler, Ferguson, Diaz, Conor and Khabib compete in as well. Other than the two main events mentioned the rest of the card is stacked with O’Malley, Garbrandt competing in their respective fights along with Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz on the prelims.
(21-4)Amanda Nunes vs (11-4)Julianna Pena
Nunes is the heavy favorite at -1000 and for good reason but that’s not where you should put your money. Pena at +600 is intriguing and maybe you can slap a half unit on that as a way to sneak in the upset. The line that is the most interesting is Nunes by submission at +350 is more likely. Pena has had three of her four career losses by submission. She has good wrestling skills with very good boxing. Nunes is a black belt in jiujitsu and will certainly love to show a wrestler why the Brazilian is on a twelve fight win streak including nine championship fights.
(21-3)Raulian Paiva vs (11-1) Sean o’malley
The lesser known but higher ranked fighter Raulian Paiva faces off against the “Unranked Champ” Sean O’Malley. Although Paiva is ranked higher, O’Malley to win heads up odds are -310. No value there. The value on this fight come in the way of a round selection. Paiva is a brawler and brings his fights to decision. O’Malley has knockout power but is predominantly a point striker, even O’Malley by KO is minus money. Look for O’Malley to win this fight in third round for a price of +800.
#7 (12-4) Cody Garbrandt vs #6 (22-9) Kai-Kara France
The basic argument here is that if Cody wants to win, he has to KO France, if France wants to win, he’ll have to out grind Cody and win a decision. Either way, that isn’t the angle you should be taking. Look at France by KO at +375 or Cody in in Round 3 at +1500. France has fought three times February 2021 with a record of 2-1. Most recently with a KO victory in the first round. France’s KO power vs Cody’s chin is money in the bank. We know that Whitaker won’t be betting on France anytime soon.
c – (31-8) charles oliveira vs #1 (28-6) dustin poirier
The Lightweight is on a streak of the most exciting title or title contention matchup in recent memory. Poirier is out to stamp his legacy. He went through the money fights with Conor and now he’s looking to get the strap back from his Interim title. Oliveira is a finishing machine but unless you’re Khabib, there isn’t a chance that the current champ will take Poirier early. Oliveira in Round 4 at +1800 is nice but Poirier in Round 5 is +1500 just as nice. Easy play with good value is Poirier at +600. This fight will not go to the ground so KOs are live.
Nunes by submission +350
Pena outright +600
O’Malley to win in Round 3 +800
Grabrandt in Round 3 +1500
France by KO +375
Augusto Sakai by KO +325
Poirier via decision +600
Dominick Cruz by KO +600