It is far, far too early for fantasy football analysis. We just found out who teams are playing against but with little to no injuries about injuries and contract holdouts or the like, it is hard to come up with cogent arguments.
This series will review the value of specific rookies and as we are far out I will focus on rookies who are the most likely to have a starting role, who will have one from the get go and how I believe that will project outward. At the end, I will indicate where I think the given player SHOULD be drafted. This way, if you miss out on the player because someone pulled the trigger too prematurely, you can smirk and pick someone more valuable when the pick comes around to you. Likewise, if the player no one believes in falls to you, it’s time for a mental fist-pump.
***before we get started each week I will remind everyone that the analysis in this series is based on regular, season-long point per reception scoring. It also assumes you play in a 12 team league***
Similarly to the first entry in this series, we’re going to focus on a player that we expect to start right away. At this stage we often don’t know who will even make the team let alone start. However, Quarterbacks drafted in the top 5 are a safe place to start. For the most part, they will have fantasy value before the season is done and in recent years it can be expected for these young men to start early, if not immediately.
The Jets traded Sam Darnold to Carolina for some bagel bites and those annoying batteries that go into thermometers, food scales and some random device you bought from Amazon that are always dead the one time you wanted to use it. In the Jets defense, it’s convenient to have those batteries on hand. They essentially cleared the path for whoever they’d draft at QB to take over before the draft. With that pick they went with Zach Wilson.
I’ve already written an article breaking down the various players I was wrong about in previous drafts. That said, Zach Wilson doesn’t do it for me. I understand that he made that cross body throw whilst in shorts. I do like his ability to throw from various platforms. However, the same way writing and drinking doesn’t make me Earnest Hemmingway, these things don’t make Zach Wilson the next Pat Mahomes.
So, unlike Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson is not set up for success. The Jets are a terrible team. Tevin Coleman struggles to be healthy and La’Michael Perine and Josh Adams struggled to find playing time last season, so I don’t expect a great running game. Corey Davis and Keelan Cole are both nice additions but neither are particularly game breaking. If anything, I think a rookie quarterback helps the stock of Jamison Crowder who will be doing his best Dolphins-era Jarvis Landry impression (expect a lot of short, safe passes).
The Jets hired coach Robert Saleh who I like a lot. However, he is a defensive minded guy and this doesn’t necessarily scream, “EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE” (I capitalized to emphasize the screaming that isn’t happening). Mike Lafleur is the team’s offensive coordinator who previously worked in San Francisco as the passing game coordinator. The experience is limited but does seem to be pass oriented.
In the end, I think Wilson may be a useful bye week replacement with upside. I don’t think you need to draft him. If he does get drafted in your league, know that there’s a decent chance that he’s not the team’s QB1 and will likely be expendable to that player within the first quarter of the season. I have a hard time seeing Zach Wilson finishing in the top 10 and should not be treated as he will.
Where should you draft Zach Wilson: Not at all in standard formats. Multiple QB leagues or giant 14-16 team formats he shou;d be one of the last QB’s drafted
Quick Analysis: I think Wilson will start from week 1. That said, I do think he will struggle. There will be a time where you can take a gamble and pick him up for potential matchup based, injury or bye week substitution.