Is this the most exciting fight of the year? No. Will I pay to watch? yes. I will pay because the rest of the card is very intriguing. Every Friday I’ll bring you my bets to take and why. I love betting on the UFC, it’s become the sport I gamble the most on. I’ve made some decent cash in 2020 on combat sports, especially from the UFC. This card is interesting. Like I mentioned on Tarps OFF MMA (Link below), this card has a lot of win and you’re in lose and join the boys and girls at Bellator or PFL. No insult to those organizations, but guys like Gastelum might be on the cutting block if he loses tomorrow night vs Ian Heinisch.
Belal Muhammad (17-3) vs Dhiego Lima (17-7)
I am very excited for this fight because it’s between two warriors. Dhiego Lima, brother of Bellator Weltwerweight champ Douglas Lima, is coming of a three fight win streak but two of those were slit decision wins. Lima falls into that Lose and you’re OUT category, because of his hot and cold results. He’s a great fighter and was my pick to win TUF: Redemption Finale but lost by a submission to banished fighter Jesse Taylor. If you’re Brazilian, you can’t lose by sub to Jesse Taylor. Lima was already cut by the UFC and wa invited back on a trial on The Ultimate Fighter. I think he gets cut again with a KO loss to Bela Muhammad. Muhammad is also coming off a three fight win streak but his wins came by Unanimous decision, Submission and Unanimous decision. I’m actually surprised that this isn’t the last fight on the Prelims. Muhammad wins this fight and he’s getting a top 10 fighter.
Belal Muhammad by finish -476. Not great but I would take +155 that the fight ends in stoppage
Kelvin Gastelum (16-6) vs Ian Heinisch (14-3)
Like I mentioned earlier, this is the win to save your job. Between me and you, I had no clue who Ian Heinisch was until I watched his last fight when he TKO Gerald Meerschaert. Never heard of the guy before. Shoot me, I can’t keep track of anything anymore. HE WAS IN JAIL, LIKE ACTUALLY IN JAIL, I WOULD NEVER MESS WITH THIS GUY but I went back and watched some fights, his loss to Brunson was the most revealing, Heinisch isn’t that killer championship level guy but he is a guy to worry about. The DWCS native has an excellent ground game including some awesome ground and pound, he puts a mean challenge in against TUF winner and former Welterweight contender Kelvin Gastelum. I want to believe in Gastelum, I really do, but he keeps on disappointing me. Three losses in a row starting with one of the best fights I have ever seen vs Adesanya. Gastelum has the tools but falls short. I’m biting the bullet and taking kelvin again.
Kelvin Gastelum by finish +435
Kamaru Usman (17-1) vs Gilbert Burns (19-3)
I’ve been on record very often saying that Burns fought his best fight vs Woodley. It was the perfect fight vs Woodley that likes to backup to th cage and try to land power punches. Woodley and Usman are very different fighters, especially sicne Usman doesn’t backup. The champ loves to put pressure on his opponents and has a huge gas tank. I would love to see Burns make this a fight but I think he’s outmatched here. The fact that Usman had to leave his camp is the only part that scares me a little. But, he went to train with Justin Gaethje and Trevor Whitman, possibly the best MMA Boxing coach in the game. Burns’ strength is on the ground, he’s one of the best pure Jiujitsu guys in the sport but that won’t matter against a heavy wrestler like Usman with nasty elbows and crazy top game.
Thanks for reading. Let me know if you like these picks or of what you think will happen. I’m always available on Twitter.
Kamaru Usman 4th round finish +1200
Also, Check out Tarps OFF MMA Episode 8 wher we breakdown the fights along with The Bellator Grand prix.