With the NFL season a little over a week away what better time to ramp up the fantasy football talk! I, myself, may divulge into the fantasy realm a little too much, which is why this year I intended on ramping things down; key word being intended. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I am an expert but more so an enthusiast with an analytical background that I try to apply to a sport that I think I know, but I really don’t. With that being said let’s start at the top with the Quarterback (QB) position.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Lamar Jackson
These two are heads and shoulders above the league, Patrick Mahomes is my guy this year, I have been on his bandwagon since Day 1. He has without a doubt the best arm in the league, he can throw off any platform and he has arguably the best weapons in the league. I am banking more so on the Mahomes of 2018 who put up over 5000 yards and 50 Touchdowns (TDs).
Lamar Jackson has a much better floor than Mahomes because of his ability to run with the ball. Jackson is an incredibly efficient QB, he doesn’t turn the ball over because when he is in trouble he runs, and when he runs, he is pretty good. Both of these guys will come at a heavy cost, which is why I prefer to go for the higher ceiling in Mahomes, but if both stay healthy they are almost locks to be the top two guys.
THE TOP 5
3. Dak Prescott
4. Kyler Murray
5. Russell Wilson
Dak is the QB of what I expect to be the second best offence in the league. He has a plethora of weapons and has literally no reason not to succeed, especially with Kellen Moore running the show. Kyler is one of the fastest rising stars at the QB position but I believe a little bit more in the system than the QB in his case. That is not a shot at his talent level in the slightest, there is a world where his talent level makes him the QB1 on the year in this system.
Mr. Unlimited the video was cringe worthy, Mr. Unlimited as a concept of what Russell Wilson could be is very intriguing. It is easy to be enamored by Wilson but I will say this, he was absolutely atrocious in the back half of the season. However if he can replicate what he did to start last season for a full 16 games this year, he will be a force.
THE TILT TIER
6. Deshaun Watson
7. Josh Allen
8. Matt Ryan
I don’t personally have Matt Ryan this high, but he fits the category because I find these three are often panic picks. The QB position is probably the most susceptible to position runs in the draft, and after Mahomes and Lamar, most draft have a small window before the ‘Run’ starts. This Run depends on your league, but the second a player from the previous QB tier is taken, the Run starts. It usually only lasts a round and when it is over, some people in your league will panic because they always got one of the top five guys in all their mock drafts.
I really like Watson and Allen, I think they deserve to be in the realm of their position ranking. Both are dual threat QBs, they have some interesting weapons but to me the big things is that they are both coming into the COVID season with a lot of consistency. That might sound weird to say with the Texans losing Hopkins, but same coaches, systems and game plans.
Matt Ryan has a Jackal and Hyde tendency with his fantasy performances, but to be fair to him, the good news is that based on Ryan’s career tendencies, this year is supposed to be an up season. Yes he absolutely has all the pieces in place, every single one of their skill players was a first round pick, but I know what the flip side looks like and I am not willing to take the chance.
THE OLD FAITHFULS
9. Drew Brees
10. Carson Wentz
11. Tom Brady
12. Aaron Rodgers
It might seem weird to put Carson Wentz in this category but his body is much older than his career. All four of these QBs have been reliable, steady fantasy players year after year but their best days are behind them. Again this might be odd to say about Wentz but there is a 50/50 chance this is an accurate statement. I think he has much more to provide but how many more times do we need to see the same narrative from him before the label sticks?
Despite being past their primes, all of these players have a high ceiling but at least one player from this group will be drafted far too high. In case you are not sure where I am going with this, this player typically is Wentz, but every once and while you may find yourself in a draft where Wentz slips to the double digit rounds. DRAFT HIM IMMEDIATELY. Any one of the players are a steal at the right value, but their variance of where they actually go in your draft will also be very high.
POTENTIAL LEAGUE WINNERS
12. Matthew Stafford
13. Daniel Jones
14. Baker Mayfield
15. Ryan Tannehill
16. Cam Newton
This tier’s label is definitely bias, but from my experience the team’s that usually win are the ones that take a dart throw in the later rounds on a QB and hit. Obviously this is a high risk strategy because if you are wrong then you are streaming a QB for the rest of the season. With that being said, each one of these guys has a path to be an incredible value pick in your draft.
Stafford is almost always on his way to a 5000 yard season before getting injured, but with all of the weapons around him, health is his only road block. Jones and Mayfield are both at critical points in their careers and both have new head coaches so the onus is squarely on them now to succeed. Tannehill was a late season darling but maintaining that efficiency will be key. Finally, Cam is a former MVP on the comeback trail, playing for arguably one of the best coaches ever, the script basically writes itself.
17. Philip Rivers
18. Jared Goff
19. Joe Burrow
20. Gardiner Minshew
21. Kirk Cousins
22. Ben Roethlisberger
23. Teddy Bridgewater
24. Drew Lock
25. Dwayne Haskins
I don’t really expect any of these guys to be drafted in a standard league, but in SuperFlex they all have some tremendous value. I think that Rivers is in the perfect situation to prove a lot of people wrong, but my favourite of the group by far is Teddy Bridgewater. I think that a lot of people are sleeping on him because there are a lot of unknown variables surrounding him right now. The Panthers also hedged their bet which could make some people second guess him, but he appears to be the clear cut starter and I am thrilled to see him finally get his shot after tearing up his entire knee with Minnesota.
To my fellow Hot Sauce colleagues, I hope you don’t think I am giving you any sort of insight into who I am drafting. You may have an idea of how I value QBs but I will surprise come draft day.
However, for the rest of you, I would never leave you hanging, if you are looking for a comprehensive and thoroughly thought out ranking of every player in the NFL this season don’t forget to check out the Fantasy Football Counselor for all your football needs. His full 16 round package is everything you need for any last minute prep to help you win your draft.
Until next time, where we will discuss my man Lenny!