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Hot Sauce Fantasy: Start/Sit Week 7

Hey folks, here is a list of players I would start and/or sit this week in fantasy.  I’ve also included a DFS section for all you action junkies out there. Moreover, as a disclaimer, you may not have a better option when it comes to “sitting guys” essentially what this article is saying is certain guys have a great matchup and others have more challenging ones.  If you can’t sit the guys we talk about here, do not expect them to outperform their projections.

START – QB

START-Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons): If you’re a Falcons fan, you’ve been annoyed with Matt Ryan’s play all season long.  If you’re a fantasy owner however, you should have noted that Matt Ryan is the only NFL Quarterback to pass for 300 yards in every game.  The Rams haven’t looked great offensively but the cure to that will likely by the Falcons defense who have been incompetent and plagued by injuries all season long.  Even if Jalen Ramsey plays for the Rams, the team has traded Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib is injured.  I expect the Falcons to have to throw a lot.

START-Daniel Jones (New York Giants): Daniel Jones looks like a guy who may actually be a star in the NFL. Translation: He looks good but not great… YET. This is a game where I think he’ll shine.  If a shopping cart was pushed from the tight end position and Jones could toss the ball into it, the cart would be the top tight end in fantasy.  Tight ends have shredded the Arizona Cardinals and it appears that Evan Engram is set to play this week.  Engram may be the top pass catcher in fantasy given his role on the offense and Arizona’s inability to defend passes to the tight end.

START-Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals): I think the Cardinals/Giants game will see a ton of points.  Vegas has the total set at 48.5 and that’s tied for second most on Sunday’s slate of games.  That’s usually an indicator that the game in question may see a lot of fantasy value.  The Giant’s defense has not been great all season and Murray has been running more over the past few weeks.  I expect both quarterbacks to put up 20+points.

START- Josh Allen (Miami Dolphins): Bold prediction time.  Given Pat Mahome’s injury last night, Josh Allen will be the number 1 ranked qb in fantasy this week.  The Dolphins are atrocious and can’t defend deep passes.  Josh Allen is prone to taking deep shots and can add value on the ground.  If Josh Allen is typically on your bench, this is a good week to start the dude.

SIT – QB

SIT-Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles): Wentz has had a decent season and finds himself in the top 10 in fantasy scoring.  However, Wentz has shown that his floor is a scary proposition for fantasy owners.  He has a tough slate of games in the coming weeks that sees him facing Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago before a bye and then he returns to face New England.  If you own Wentz and haven’t traded him, I’m afraid he’ll likely be a wasted asset and will be lucky to be a top 15 quarterback after this stretch.

SIT-Philip Rivers (LA Chargers): Phil Rivers is no longer the late round fantasy steal that he’s been in seasons past.  Rivers has has only two 20+ point finishes all season and Tenessee has given up the 8th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks.  We know Phil Rivers will likely have 90 seconds to drive down the field at the end of the game, down by five with no timeouts, however, I don’t think it will be a favorable fantasy day.

START – RB

START-Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons): Quietly Freeman has put together a top 15 season so far this season.  Most of this is additional value in the pass game but this is, in fact, a PPR column so catches are valuable.  The YPC and efficiency are terrifyingly bad.  However, ugly or not Freeman has been getting it done.

START-Tevin Coleman (San Francisco 49ers): The 49ers face the Raceskins and while this is a work share in San Francisco they run the ball so often there’s plenty to go around.  Coleman has been explosive and due to his familiarity with Kyle Shanahan’s system has earned a consistent role in the offense.

SIT – RB

SIT-Joe Mixon (Cincinatti Bengals): The matchup doesn’t even matter at this point.  Mixon isn’t worth trading and isn’t worth keeping.  He will likely have a spot on your bench for the rest of the season.  No starting running back is getting less opportunities than Mixon, and he’s done little with those opportunities.  Unless he strings a couple of games together, Mixon’s season is a wash.

SIT- Kerryon Johnson (Detroit Lions): The Lions take on the Vikings this week and their pass coverage is not what it once was.  Xavier Rhodes is still a good corner but hasn’t quite been the shut-down corner that he has been in the past.  For this reason I think we’ll see the Lions throwing the ball more than is expected this game.  Johnson will be useable but don’t expect him to get as much volume as usual.

START – WR

START- Cooper Kupp (LA Rams) : Kupp lines up in the slot 76% of the time which means he’ll draw Demontae Kazee.  There are several reasons to like this matchup.  The Falcons defense is banged up, Kazee is only 5’10 and 184lbs (to Kupp’s 6’1” 204 lb frame). The Flcons can’t generate pressure and Kupp, despite an off week last week, is an absolute stud.  Expect a top three finish from Cooper Kupp.

START-Marvin Jones JR (Detroit Lions): This one may not be a smash success but, it is a favorable matchup.  Marvin Jones is earning .33 points per passing route (solid while non-spectacular), but with the shadow coverage of Xavier Rhodes going to Kenny Golladay, we expect Marvin Jones to draw coverage from Trae Waynes who is allowing .41 points per route. Expect an uptick from a usual 17% target share for Jones in this game.

START-Amari Cooper and/or Michael Gallup: Cooper’s health is in question heading into the divisional game against the Eagles.  If he plays he should tear up the Eagles like everyone else has.  Michael Gallup may be the number 1 receiver against a deplorable defense.  Gallup has not been targeted fewer than seven times in the 4 game he’s played and has recorded over a hundred yards in two of those contests.  If the Eagles are playing, they’re allowing passing yards.

SIT – WR

SIT-Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals): For the second week in a row, Boyd draws a tough matchup in the slot. This is tough to predict with the exodus of Jalen Ramsey.  However, if Jacksonville game plans the way we expect them to DJ Hayden will be the slot corner and he has been particularly tough to throw against all season.  He’s allowing 0.18 points per target against receivers this season (among the league’s lowest averages).

SIT-Terry McLaurin (Washington Raceskins) : This may come as a surprise to everyone but the 49ers seem to be very affective in stopping the pass this season.  Part of this is the game script as the 49ers will run the ball a lot and slow down the pace of the game.  However, the size and range of outside corners Ahkello Witherspoon and Richard Sherman make this a difficult task for the speedy McLaurin.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – SEPTEMBER 08: Wide receiver Terry McLaurin #17 of the Washington Redskins scores a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on September 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

TIGHT ENDS

START-Hunter Henry (LA Chargers): If there was any doubt that the Chargers would re-integrate Hunter Henry quickly, it was put to rest last week.  Henry is THE red zone target right now for the Chargers. He had three red zone targets last week and I expect this trend to continue.  Tenesee defends the tight end well.  However, they are prone to allowing touchdowns to Tight Ends. I expect Henry will be a high efficiency play this week.

SIT- Gerald Everett (LA Rams): On the surface this does appear to be a good matchup for Everett.  However, because there is such an upgrade for all Rams receivers this week I don’t think that Everett will factor much into the game plan.

DFS Lineup

QB: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons): At his price point, he’s sure to put up solid numbers and provide the three point bonus.  Furthermore, has anyone noticed Matt Ryan is QB 5 this season?

RB: Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons): We detailed how well Freeman has done despite the lack of efficiency.  I expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game.  At a price point of 5400$ the workload is too much to pass up.

RB: Derrick Henry (Tenessee Titans): With some of the big dogs on bye this week my strategy was to secure three, mid-priced running backs that would get more than 20 touches and Henry certainly fits that mould.

WR: Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions): He will get Xavier Rhodes as a shadow, however 5,800$ for a lyer who has a 27% target share is too much to pass up. This is also a good contrarian play as bettors will be scared off by the matchup.

WR: TY Hilton (Indianapolis Colts): When he’s healthy he’s a stud and this season he’s been targeted a ton in the red zone.

WR: Cooper Kupp (LA Rams): Given how most people hold deep seeded recency bias, people will forget how great Kupp has been all season and hold last week against him.  Trust me, it’s worth paying up for Kupp this week.

Tight End: Evan Engram (NY Giants): If there is a tight end playing against the Cardinals, play that tight end! It’s as simple as that!  Had to pay up for it this week but if he scores more than 19.5 points it will be worth the price and I think he will obliterate that against the Cardinals.

FLEX: Josh Jacobs (Oakland Raiders): This is the third mid-priced running back I described.  The value is great even while the matchup is tough.  However, given a full bye week to prepare, I think Jacobs will pay off this week.

Defense: Oakland Raiders: It’s not great but they were only 1900$ on draft kings.  At that price point you’re only looking for 5-6 points.

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