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Hot Sauce Fantasy: Start / Sit Week 3

Hey folks, here is a list of players I would start and/or sit this week in fantasy.  I’ve also included a DFS section for all you action junkies out there. Moreover, as a disclaimer, you may not have a better option when it comes to “sitting guys” essentially what this article is saying is certain guys have a great matchup and others have more challenging ones.  If you can’t sit the guys we talk about here, do not expect them to outperform their projections.

Quarterback

START-Kyler Murray (QB, Arizona Cardinals): It may not be apparently obvious but Kyler Murray is throwing A TON.  His fantasy scoring should vastly improve as soon as the Cardinals start throwing.  Statistically, we can expect that an offense that is throwing this often (they seem to virtually be in three and four receiver sets all game, every game). Mighty Mouse complex notwithstanding I feel like there is plenty of upside for the quarterback with the 5th most passing yards through two games.  He’s also an exceptional value in DFS as well.

START-Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)- Hands up if you know who led the Bills in rushing TDs in 2018.  Have you given up? Is a series of questions pointless when I’ve listed the name of the player ahead of the paragraph? You betcha!!! Josh Allen led the Bills in Rushing Yards and TDs last season.  The Bills have shown a commitment to the run game and while all signs point to the trend that Gore may be starting, it means that while Gore will get a solid workload but the dynamic plays may have to come by Josh Allen by ground or air. 

START-Jameis Winston (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Jameis has been very Jameis.  Well, hopefully his behavior in Ubers has been better than his past would suggest.  However, his play has been what you’d expect.  He’s forced tons of turnovers and he’s not quite living up to his potential.  However, we’ve seen the lows of Winston this season and this may be the week we see the highs.  However, the New York Giants have ranked 30th thus far against the pass and they are poised to start their rookie QB Daniel Jones.  With the absence of a running game the Bucs look to be on offense a lot in this game. With no other way to move the ball and the Giants are seemingly giving, receptions, catches and touchdowns away, Winston looks to have his best start yet. This one may bite me in the ass but if you had a QB go down to injury last week, or have been rostering Winston all season long, this may be the week to fire him up!

SIT-Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green bay Packers) Denver is ranked fourth against the pass, Aaron Rodgers and coach Matt Lafleur don’t seem to be on the same page.  The offence is better structured than what McCarthy put forward in his time as coach of The Pack but it appears to be less free-flowing than Rodgers seems to care for.  Expect Chris Harris to follow Davante Adams whether he’s in the slot or outside (remember that Harris had previously specialized as a slot corner).

SIT-Baker Mayfield (QB, Cleveland Browns)- The Chargers are great at getting pressure on the quarterback and while the Browns hate has gone too far, it does seem like it will take a few weeks for this offence to get everyone on the same page. Moreover, facing the Chargers means you have to face Philip Rivers.  Rivers is not the fantasy quarterback he once promised to be but he still a very capable NFL quarterback.  Expect long drives and a combined point total in this game of under 50.  The Chargers are also second against the pass so this doesn’t bode well for the second year quarterback.

Wide Receiver

START-Marquise Brown (QB, Baltimore Ravens): His efficiency will likely tail off.  However, he does appear to be the preferred target of a high flying offense (weird to say that about a “running back” at quarterback…he says with full tongue in cheek).  Marquise Brown is getting targeted an insane amount but with less balls being thrown to running backs than I thought and with no other receiver emerging to take any of the workload away, look for Brown to continue to have a very good season.  Yes, they’ve face Miami and Arizona, however, Kansas City has been atrocious against outside receivers and I expect this game to be very high scoring.  If Baltimore has a chance, it will be on the back of Brown and the passing game.

START-Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Arizona Cardinals): I like all of the pass catchers from the Cardinals this week.  The Panthers have been most susceptible against slot receivers this season and Kirk and Fitzgerald have lined up in the slot 85 and 96% (respectively) of the time this season.  I mentioned that I expect their scoring efficiency to improve but I also don’t think it matters a ton when you consider that the volume will be out of this world.  Carolina will be in better shape without Cam Newton than people expect and that will have a team that throws a lot throwing as often as ever.

START-Kenny Golladay (WR, Detroit Lions)- Golladay lines up against Rasul Douglas of the Eagles this week.  This means it’s ostensibly an early Christmas for the number 1 receiver in Detroit.  The Eagles defense is awful and while Ronald Darby is giving up a slightly higher total of Fantasy points per route than Douglas (0.61-0.58), I actually prefer Golladay due to his 26% target share.  All of that math suggests Golladay has been great and we’ve seen how poorly Philidelphia is and has been against top receivers all season.

SIT-Sammy Watkins (WR-Kansas City Chiefs): The Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman with the idea that they may be replacing Tyreek Hill for a while.  He was always expected to be part of the offense. Sammy Watkins roll was somewhat reduced last week and I think it’s because Robinson and Hardman fufill the Hill role more completely than Watkins does as the X receiver. I think he is likely more of a flex play until we get more of a sample size of how we expect this team to use their pieces in the absence of their top gun!

SIT-Terry McLaurin (WR-Washington Raceskins): McLaurin has been a revelation for the Raceskins this season.  However, given that he spends more than half the game on the left hand side where he has a particularly tough matchup against Prince Amukamara who is quietly one of the better perimeter defenders so far this season, I expect his production to be a little lower than projected.  When McLaurin moves to the right hand side, Kyle Fuller is an equally challenging matchup.  Unless the Raceskins, buck the trend completely and play McLaurin out of the slot there won’t be a ton of upside for him this week.  Compound this with Chicago’s fierce pass rush and I expect the game script to work against McLaurin completely this week.

Tight End

START-Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens): This is a player that puzzles me completely. Mark Andrews only runs a route on approximately 35% of the snaps he plays.  However, this doesn’t mean much as he is still being heavily targeted and is averaging 13.8 yards per catch.  Andrews is likely plug and play for anyone who’s rostering him but do so with confidence this week.

START-Greg Olsen (TE,  Carolina Panthers):  Greg Olsen is starting to look a little more like a check down Jason Witten-esque type tight end.  However, we rank for PPR and as such, Olsen still has value.  Backup quarterbacks do checkdown frequently and I expect Kyle Allen to want to play a methodical and safe offense in hopes of keeping this job over Will Grier should Cam Newton’s injury be more serious than anticipated.

SIT-Hunter Henry (TE, LA Chargers)- UPDATED-Officially INACTIVE…so definitely sit.

Peeze’s “Easy Money” DFS Lineup-Week 3

Last week I returned 6 times the amount of my investment in my DFS lineups.  The goal as always is to look for market inefficiencies and contrarian plays so that you can pad the rest of your position with high end talent.  This week’s lineup makes best use of both.

QB-Matt Ryan (5,700$): This is simply a value play to allow for more money to use on more valuable positions.  Matt Ryan is going up against the Colts who have struggled defending the pass and Ryan’s yardage total has been impressive through two games. Ryan is also a typical contrarian play garnering much hate from the fantasy community.

RB-Ezekiel Elliot (8,900$): …Dolphins…end of analysis

RB- Aaron Jones (6,100$): With a tough matchup for Davante Adams expect the Packers to run it a lot.  We’ve seen that Lafleur’s Titans, run-heavy approach is something he’s taken with him from the Titans.  Jones is a very good value for a guy who may just finish in the top 10 this week.

WR-K.Golladay (6,600$): Golladay is a huge value play going against the Eagles who rank dead last against the pass.  They are particularly weak against perimeter receivers. 

WR-Christian Kirk (5,000$): The offense throw a lot and Kirk has been targeted a lot in the redzone.  His value is incredible for a receiver who has 20 of the teams 99 passing targets.

WR-Nelson Agholor (3,600$): With the monetary value set before Monday’s games Agholor is set to be the main man in a game that won’t feature DJax or Alshon Jeffery.  Alternatively, enter a second lineup that features Zach Ertz as I expect him to get a lot of volume as well.

TE-Mark Andrews (4,600$): I expect this to be a high scoring game, expect Mark Andrews to get a lot of volume for the reasons listed above.

Flex-Keenan Allen (7,000$): This is the best value at this price range this week.  Playing primarily out of the slot, Allen has a favorable matchup against Bradley Roby.  He is also heavily targeted in the red zone and is projected by most fantasy sites to have at least a score in this game.

DEF-Chargers (2500$): Given the rest of the lineup I’m happy with the Chargers at this price point.  Houston’s offense has been pedestrian at this point and I’d rather take a defense that can give me points with sacks and turnovers than a defense that will be steady.  I’m looking to win a larger amount rather than place in a tournament, for this reason, give me the Chargers.

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